Quick Update

Some metrics suggesting caution in the short term

Dear readers,

Hope all is well and you’re having a good week thus far. Just wanted to send out a quick update with some information that you may find useful to keep in mind in the short term.

In last week’s newsletter (sent out Friday) we touched on how exchange flows had gone flat and illiquid supply ratio was moving slightly upwards. Since then, those trends have changed.

Key takeaways:

  • Supply is becoming liquid

  • Since the recent newsletter, 22,803 Bitcoins have moved onto exchanges

  • Demand for block space is low

  • Seeing some profit taking in outputs last moved >6 months ago

  • Whales selling off slightly, no follow through after the big move up we tracked a few weeks ago

Firstly, coins have started moving onto exchanges. On Friday we noted exchange flows were flat, but since the letter was sent out 22,803 BTC have moved onto exchanges. A lot of those inflows have come into Binance.

The day after the letter was sent out we also got a decent size downtick in illiquid supply shock ratio. This is showing coins have been turning liquid. Not unexpected to see some profits taken after such an aggressive move up, but don’t want to see this become a trend. We also see the exchange supply shock ratio here in pink, which has faded sideways bearish.

Whales have also trimmed their holdings the last few days. After the move up we tracked a few weeks ago never really got the follow through we were hoping for.

Seeing an increase in spent outputs above 6 months old (closest I could get it to the 155 day long term holder threshold) as a percentage of overall outputs. Not the end of the world right now, but something to keep an eye on.

Looking forward to touching base on Friday, take care!

- Will